By Sean McCafferty and Marjuka Binte Afzal
Bangladesh’s recent political turmoil has sparked interest from Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda (AQ), both seeing the regime change as a strategic opportunity. With the government in transition, security reforms needed, and jihadist propaganda targeting Bangladesh, there is a risk of increased jihadist activity during the country’s democratic transition.
On July 16, 2024, the killing of 25-year-old university student Abu Sayeed by police became a galvanising symbol of widespread protest in Bangladesh. Standing defiantly with his arms open in front of a line of police, Sayeed was shot multiple times and fell to the ground, dying moments later. Footage of his defiant protest went viral, sparking outrage at government violence.
The protest movement began after a controversial June 5 ruling by the Bangladeshi High Court, which reinstated a quota system1 reserving 30% of public jobs for descendants of veterans of the 1971 Liberation War.2 The controversial policy had been previously abolished in 2018 following widespread protests. Protests against the renewed quota policy erupted in July, led by student movements. It quickly grew to mass support across the country. Throughout July the sustained protests were met with violence, with over 300 Bangladeshi’s killed by government forces and loyalists. Footage of the protests and government violence spread through social media and group chats, including evidence of security forces subjecting protesters to beatings, tear gas, rubber bullets, as well as use of live ammunition.
The protests remained resilient in the face of escalating government violence and on the 5th of August Prime Minister Sheik Hasina fled with her sister to India. The Bangladeshi military announced the establishment of an interim government, following negotiations with the leaders of the protest movements and political opposition groups.
Calls for Jihad in Bangladesh
The current political transition in Bangladesh appears to be being viewed as an opportunity by IS and al-Qaeda, with official propaganda and supporters of both groups targeting the country. On Tuesday the 20th of August, al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) primary propaganda wing, As-Sahab Subcontinent, published a 14-page statement by Usama Mahmood,3 the Emir of AQIS, titled “Bangladesh – The Emerging Hope of Supporting Islam For the Muslim masses of Bangladesh on the occasion of the current public uprising”. The statement celebrates the regime change in Bangladesh and draws on a wide range of grievances linking the plight of Palestinians in Gaza to historic grievances in Bangladesh. It claims that “the atrocities that transpired in Bangladesh are but one link of the chain of atrocities and brutalities of this same Zionist-Hindutva alliance”.4 The statement ends with a call for supporters to act so that Bangladesh “shall become a centre and a preparatory ground for the Mujahideen of Islam, by the permission of Allah.”5
AQIS has a history of targeting its propaganda towards a Bangladeshi audience and leveraging regional grievances, particularly the treatment of Muslims in India and the forced displacement of the Rohingya in Myanmar. Their main target has primarily been the large youth population, vulnerable due to factors such as lack of religious knowledge, economic issues, cultural factors, identity crises, and a sense of Muslim victimisation. Middle-class youths with urban and secular backgrounds are increasingly targeted for radicalisation by al-Qaeda and other groups, driven by disillusionment with the state, personal grievances, and the allure of propaganda.
Pro-Islamic State At-Tamkeen Media has long acted as a hub for Bengali translations of official material and pro-IS content. Amid an increase in Bengali language content IS supporters have called for Jihad and Hijrah6 to Bangladesh. A new pro-IS channel with a focus on Bangladesh was established on Rocketchat on the 9th of May, with four Telegram channels set up by the group since then. To date, the channel has a limited number of members with only 10 prolific users interacting in the channel. This small group has focused since its inception on producing Bengali language content in support of IS, calling for Jihad and Hijrah in response to the regime change in Bangladesh. The group’s propaganda is shared in their channel, through their Telegram channels, and hosted on five different file-sharing sites and paste-sites to reach a larger audience. Following efforts by IS supporters, official Islamic State propaganda followed. On the 19th of September, IS published an editorial in the group’s an-Naba magazine, addressing political change in Bangladesh. The editorial, titled “Bangladesh and Shari’ah Rule,” compared the political changes in Bangladesh to the Arab Spring, suggesting that the regime change will ultimately fail. Islamic State propagandists claim that “ideological and methodological disruptions”7 in the faith of Bangladeshis will prevent the establishment of Shari’ah. They argue that Bangladeshis must correct their course, asserting that this “cannot be done without Jihad.”8
Al-Qaeda and Islamic State have had limited presence in Bangladesh in recent years. The last major attack the siege at the Holey Bakery in 2016, carried out by a group with links to Neo-Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (Neo-JMB) which claimed allegiance to IS. Both IS and al-Qaeda operate in Bangladesh through a complex relationship with Bangladeshi groups such as Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), Neo-JMB, and Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT). The rising ambition of jihadist groups globally following the October 7th attacks and the growing capability of Islamic State to stage attacks outside of areas of territorial influence represents a potential threat to Bangladesh.
Counterterrorism and reform in Bangladesh
Bangladesh under Sheik Hasina’s Awami League has consistently denied that jihadist groups linked to Islamic State and al-Qaeda have a domestic presence. Bangladesh has been hailed as a counterterrorism success story in South-Asia limiting the influence of transnational jihadist groups, engaging in regional cooperation and establishing security reforms following the 2016 Holey Bakery attack. However, Bangladesh’s security forces are marked by violent and repressive tactics. The Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), founded in 2004 as the Rapid Action Team (RAT), was set up as a specialised counterterrorism unit yet has been implicated in a series of extra-judicial killings, torture, forced disappearances and political violence often using counterterrorism as a justification. The establishment of the new interim government will lead to reflections on the regime’s authoritarian past and the use violence in response to the July protests and as a part of Bangladeshi politics.
The new interim government must seek to move on from the legacy of violence from the security forces and will face challenges in establishing an effective counterterrorism approach of its own. Right now, the interim government is concentrating on addressing human rights concerns (with a new 5-committee membered commission to investigate enforced disappearances between January 2010 to August 2024), reconciliating political divisions among communities, promoting economic development, and strengthening democratic institutions. The threats issued by al-Qaeda and Islamic State may represent a serious threat of a spike in jihadist activity in Bangladesh during the democratic transition. The new government will face a myriad of challenges as they undergo an inquisition of the misconduct of the security forces by the previous regime. While they initiate this process it is key that they remain alert to the potential increase in activity by Islamic State and al-Qaeda cells, who seek to take advantage of the evolving political situation.
- Bangladesh had instated a quota system through which 56% of public posts and government jobs were reserved for various categories, 30% for the descendants of veterans of the 1971 Liberation War. ↩︎
- The 1971 Liberation War was fought as a war of independence that established Bangladesh as an independent nation after being a part of Pakistan following the British partition of India. ↩︎
- Usama Mahmood is the Emir of al-Qaeda Indian Subcontinent he is an influential member of al-Qaeda often shaping the groups propaganda and narratives in South Asia. ↩︎
- As-Sahab Subcontinent Statement. ↩︎
- As-Sahab Subcontinent Statement. ↩︎
- Hijrah is a religious term initially describing the migration of the prophet Muhamad and his followers from Mecca to Medina, jihadist ideology reinterprets Hijrah as a duty to leave lands they consider un-Islamic or hostile to Islam (Dar al-Kufr) and move to areas where they can engage in jihad (Dar al-Islam). ↩︎
- an-Naba 461 ↩︎
- an-Naba 461 ↩︎
Sean McCafferty is a Research Assistant in the School of Law at Dublin City University and a member of the Cyber Threats Research Centre (CYTREC) at Swansea University. His research focuses on open-source intelligence (OSINT), terrorism, propaganda, and technology. He is a graduate from the Erasmus Mundus International Master’s in Security, Intelligence and Strategic Studies (IMSISS) jointly delivered by Glasgow University, Dublin City University, and Charles University.
Marjuka Binte Afzal is a lecturer in the Department of Peace, Conflict, and Human Rights at the Bangladesh University of Professionals (BUP) in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Her research interests include radicalisation, Islamist extremism, hybrid warfare, and influence operations. She is currently pursuing a Ph.D. in Political Science at Florida State University (FSU).
IMAGE CREDIT: PEXELS
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